When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with in my lineups.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
*Note: In the double-headers, the pitchers are available for the second games, but the statistics for hitters/relievers count for the first game of the double-header only.
Tampa Bay Rays (Odorizzi) at Baltomore Orioles (Gonzalez)
Tampa Bay’s Jake Odorizzi hasn’t had a very good start to the year and his problem has been getting his ball squared up: Odorizzi has the 15th-worst line drive percentage on his batted balls among starters with at least 10 innings pitched at 27.8-percent. For context, Homer Bailey is just under him at 27.7-percent. His price makes him a nice GPP start, but that’s it.
Desmond Jennings (OF) – $5533
Evan Longoria (3B) – $5097
Miguel Gonzalez has been knocked around in his own right this year and his line drive rate is sky-high at 34.3-percent against. Until that starts regressing, I’m staying away.
Chris David (1B) – $5355
JJ Hardy (SS) – $4860
Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) at Cincinnati Reds (Cueto)
Francisco Liriano has been off to a rocky-ish start this year but a lot of it has to do with his home runs given up, while he’s pitched very well otherwise. He pitched OK against Cincinnati last year, again the problem came when he gave up home runs. Judging by the way the two teams have swung the bat the last couple of days, I’d avoid Liriano and the Pirates hitters.
Johnny Cueto looks like the Johnny Cueto of old so far this year with the added bonus of some extra strikeouts. I would say that he’s not generating as many swinging strikes as he has in the past, so I’m not sure how long those strikeouts last. I will use him today, though. Some players are really starting to hit their offensive stride, too.
Joey Votto (1B) – $6635
Todd Frazier (3B) – $5588
