My favorite aspect of standard scoring is that using running quarterbacks can be advantageous because of the heavily weighted scoring for yardage and scores gained on the ground. I went as far to label it as the ultimate quarterback cheat code, standard scoring’s version of the fabled Konami Code. Of the nine quarterbacks who qualified for the Code’s requirements, five finished the season as top 10 overall fantasy options.
Read more about the 2013 Fantasy Season in Review
Wide Receiver Review – The Target Multiplier
Wide Receiver Review – The Red Zone
Wide Receiver Review – Hallow Routes
Running Back Review – Rushing Production
Running Back Review – Touchdown Effect
Quarterback Review – Weekly Performance
In the follow up to that piece, I analyzed how much more quarterbacks were running now than ever. Not just the runners we expect to take off, but even pocket passers are running more frequently. Only three quarterbacks in the top 12 for overall season scorers failed to record a game in which they ran for at least 20 yards (Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo).
Quarterbacks with the most 20 and 40 yard rushing performances
|
Player |
GP w/20+ Yds. |
GP w/40+ Yds. |
|
Cam Newton |
12 |
7 |
|
Colin Kaepernick |
12 |
5 |
|
Alex Smith |
10 |
5 |
|
Andrew Luck |
10 |
1 |
|
Russell Wilson |
9 |
5 |
|
Robert Griffin III |
9 |
5 |
|
Terrelle Pryor |
8 |
6 |
|
Geno Smith |
7 |
5 |
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick |
6 |
2 |
|
Nick Foles |
6 |
2 |
|
Mike Vick |
5 |
4 |
|
Ryan Tannehill |
5 |
2 |
|
Andy Dalton |
4 |
1 |
|
EJ Manuel |
4 |
1 |
Those 20 yards may seem insignificant, but they surely aren’t and the 40 yard games are even more meaningful. Newton added the equivalent of a passing touchdown in nearly half of his games played just with his legs. Foles may not be the athlete that Vick is, but Chip Kelly’s system creates natural openings for the quarterback to makes plays with his feet. He ran for 20 or more yards in over half of his starts, something that will go undervalued when evaluating his 2014 outlook.
Fantasy Production
What we really care about though is just how many points these players were scoring and how much of their overall production came from the ground.
|
Player |
Fantasy Points |
Rush Pts. |
Rush % |
Att |
Pts./Att. |
|
Terrelle Pryor |
143.52 |
69.60 |
48.5% |
83 |
0.84 |
|
Michael Vick |
100.1 |
41.50 |
41.5% |
37 |
1.12 |
|
Geno Smith |
193.74 |
72.60 |
37.5% |
72 |
1.01 |
|
Christian Ponder |
107.02 |
39.10 |
36.5% |
34 |
1.15 |
|
Cam Newton |
297.66 |
94.50 |
31.7% |
111 |
0.85 |
|
Colin Kaepernick |
264.28 |
76.40 |
28.9% |
92 |
0.83 |
|
Jake Locker |
99.74 |
27.50 |
27.6% |
24 |
1.15 |
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick |
166.66 |
40.50 |
24.3% |
43 |
0.94 |
|
Robert Griffin III |
213.02 |
48.90 |
23.0% |
86 |
0.57 |
|
EJ Manuel |
133.48 |
30.60 |
22.9% |
53 |
0.58 |
|
Russell Wilson |
270.18 |
59.90 |
22.2% |
96 |
0.62 |
|
Andrew Luck |
292.58 |
61.70 |
21.1% |
63 |
0.98 |
Almost half of Pryor’s fantasy output came from rushing statistics and four quarterbacks had over a third of their scoring come from the ground. Newton had the highest total of points rushing out of all the quarterbacks and was 30th in the entire NFL in fantasy points generated strictly from rushing. He had more rushing points than Ray Rice, Lamar Miller, Trent Richardson and Andre Ellington to give you a few noteable names.
The interesting thing about Newton is that he’s finished each of his first three seasons as a top four fantasy option in the league despite dropping in overall point performance every year. Coincidentally, his rushing output has dropped every year as well.
|
Player |
Year |
Fantasy Points |
Att. |
Rush Pts. |
Pts./Att. |
Rush % |
QB Finish |
|
Cam Newton |
2011 |
369.64 |
125 |
154.9 |
1.24 |
41.9% |
3 |
|
Cam Newton |
2012 |
323.46 |
127 |
122.1 |
0.96 |
37.7% |
4 |
|
Cam Newton |
2013 |
297.66 |
111 |
94.5 |
0.85 |
31.7% |
3 |
As these younger hybrid quarterbacks gain experience in playing the position from the pocket, they aren’t forced to make every play with their athleticism. Not only has Newton’s rushing output decreased as he’s gotten more acclimated to the league (and the league to him), but look at how the other year two and three more mobile quarterbacks had a dip in fantasy reliance from the ground.
Overall Fantasy Production from Rushing
|
Player |
2012 Rush % |
2013 Rush % |
|
Cam Newton |
37.7% |
31.7% |
|
Colin Kaepernick |
41.1% |
28.9% |
|
Russell Wilson |
26.4% |
22.2% |
|
Andrew Luck |
20.1% |
21.1% |
|
Robert Griffin III |
38.9% |
23.0% |
|
Ryan Tannehill |
18.1% |
12.5% |
All of the quarterbacks had a decrease in rushing dependency outside of Luck, while Kaepernick and Griffin dropped significantly. This is twofold; the first part is these players are growing from a passing perspective. The other is the league has been forced to adopt new approaches and emphasis into taking this away from the offense. My overall belief is that this is a plus for the quarterbacks mentioned, because they will still always have their feet as a weapon, so if they develop into threats with their arms, the overall fantasy production is going to soar.
Volatility
In our other look at quarterbacks from the 2013 season, we analyzed their weekly performance while keeping their overall points scored in mind. From that alone you can tell what the rushing aspect adds to the end game of these players.
Geno Smith, Kaepernick, Manuel and Griffin all had Dud percentages in over 40 percent or more of their starts. Newton, Luck, Tannehill, Alex Smith and Wilson all had four such games each, over a quarter of their starts. There were pure pocket passers like Matt Ryan and Ton Brady who had more duds these guys, but there’s no denying that outside of Luck, all of the others are limited when it comes to posting big time passing volume. The only exception was Foles, who was so good in both departments on a weekly basis that he wasn’t susceptible to laying fantasy eggs. Only one of his ten starts resulted in all out dud.
While the scoring is definitely weighted for these players because of their second ability to run, when the rushing output isn’t substantial, these players were all vulnerable to really damaging your weekly output. The cheat code exists, but like any cheat, nothing is given for free. You better be careful in how often you use it.
