Fantasy Football: 2013 Wide Receiver Review – Hallow Routes

Earlier in the week, we began our stroll down 2013 memory lane by looking at receivers who were the most efficient targets for their respective teams. Using that target multiplier, we can combine that with other statistics to see how effectively teams were using their personnel through our fantasy lens. The metric we’re going to look at in conjuncture with the multiplier is Hallow Route Percentage.

The math mavens employed by Pro Football Focus keep tabs on snaps in route for all offensive players. Without the service they provide, this wouldn’t be possible. Using route data can help a great deal in fantasy on a number of fronts. An efficient receiver like Anquan Boldin may play in a run first offense that runs very little offensive plays, resulting in a lower number of routes run  Mr. Boldin ran (462 routes to be exact). On the flip side, a terribly inefficient player like Greg Little may be in the opposite spectrum (668 routes run).  That’s an extreme discrepancy in routes run and by two players separated by a galaxy of efficiency. When the efficiency gap is closer between two players, you want to own the guy on the field more. In the end we only care about points scored, efficiency be damned. The opposite end of that, however, is efficiency more often than not guides you in the direction of the better football player, so you need to be prepared when volume is neutral.

The Hallow Route Percentage is elementary: the percentage of routes run when that player wasn’t even targeted by his quarterback. Jordy Nelson was targeted 127 on 645 total routes, meaning 80.3 percent of snaps in route were completely fantasy fruitless. There’s a reason receivers are so volatile and that’s because even the very best ones only get the opportunity to even do something on around 25 percent of their allotted routes.

We’re cutting the total number of routes off at 400 to look at the leaders and bottom feeders. It’s an arbitrary number, but it averages out to 25 routes run per game, something that feels appropriate. In the end we ended up 64 wide receivers who met that 400 route prerequisite, so let’s get to it by first looking at who ran the fewest percentage of hallow routes and if their usage was warranted by adding our target multiplier.

Everyone here was targeted on over a quarter of the routes they ran. Boldin ran 153 fewer routes than Garcon and totaled just three fewer fantasy points for the entire season. All but three receivers added something to the table on average with those targets, so for the most part; teams were feeding the right players when they were on the field.

The fact that Garcon was so leaned on in Kyle Shanahan’s offense while being  slightly under par target for Robert Griffin and Kirk Cousins only means more magical things are in store for a much better player in Gordon. Garcon was targeted on nearly 30 percent of snaps in route. In a game of hypotheticals, Gordon would’ve scored 21 more standard fantasy points on the season with the attention Garcon received. The Gordon hype train definitely doesn’t need any more cars attached to it, but add another anyways.

The only real discrepancy here in usage and efficiency is Shorts. While it’s easy to sweep his production under the rug due to his association with the Jaguars, remember that he had a strong contingency pushing his ADP into sixth round last season.  He’s a guy who’s had five of his 11 career scores from 39 yards or greater now, something that will always lead to immense volatility. If you’re looking for a post hype sleeper next season, I’d go ahead and look elsewhere.

All in all, that’s a list of good performers who warranted their usage, so no need to linger. Let’s turn the tides now on the players who were targeted the least amount of the routes run.

Now we have a combination of some fun names, a lot of rookies and all over the map fantasy production. Little, Vincent Brown, Durham and Avant weren’t fantasy factors at all and their respective teams were correct by incorporating them as little as they did, although we can argue if even that was too much. Avery and LaFell are just guys and their multiplier proves it, my personal belief is both would fall below the mean if they were targeted more.

Royal’s multiplier is inflated because he turned a really low number of targets into eight touchdowns. He wore a neon outlier sign all season and was treated as such in fantasy circles all season, no need to waste any more time on him.

The same holds true for Marlon Brown, but I’ll firmly put myself in his camp going forward. Unlike Royal, Brown’s touchdown totals are sustainable. He converted seven of 14 red zone targets and five of ten targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns in his rookie season.  Most draftniks will lead you to believe that at worst, Mike Evans will be a red zone producer and Baltimore needs him. Well Baltimore already has his floor on their roster in the 6-foot-5,  216 pound Brown. Evans may be a better overall prospect in terms of being a complete receiver, but if the Ravens are drafting him strictly based on what he can be in the red zone, that would be a mistake.

Stills had 17 fewer targets out of any receiver that qualified for this study and was targeted on only ten percent of his routes. He was a big play threat in the ilk of Devery Henderson and other ghosts of Saints X receivers past, but he was probably underutilized as well. Same for Terrance Williams last season; it was head scratching that he lost playing time to Miles Austin in the second half of the season.  Both enter year two with some upside.

The big name that jumps out is of course, DeAndre Hopkins. Jon Moore on the College Football Experiment already pointed out that labeling Hopkins as a disappointment is in fact incorrect, and the above adds to his claim. Hopkins was targeted on less than 15 percent of routes despite being on average a 27 percent better target than any other player on the field for Houston. He only had two touchdowns on the season, so his multiplier isn’t weighted at all. He produced when given real opportunities. He’ll enter his sophomore season only 22 years old and the Texans organization will have new energy and a new quarterback, buy all the shares you can while you can.

Lastly, Riley Cooper makes the list as well as Jason Avant. At first blush, both are ignorable, but not so fast.  Cooper was a startable receiver once Nick Foles took over, and his production warrants him sticking around in Philly. His off the field issues from a season ago may keep pursuers away and the Eagles stuck with him through that ordeal. If he stays put and the Eagles also retain Jeremey Maclin, this makes Avant’s totals from above more relevant.

Avant ran 359 of those routes (77.7 percent) from the slot last season. He’s always been an inside guy, but do you know who ran the second most routes from the slot for the Eagles? Desean Jackson. Chip Kelly moved Jackson around more than he’s been used thus far in his career, running 144 routes from the slot, which made up 26.5 percent of his total. He’s run under 20 percent of his routes from the slot his entire career except for the 22.6 in 2009.

I wouldn’t expect him to play exclusively there, but if you recall, Jackson posted the 12^th highest multiplier this season, so swapping in more of the efficient Jackson while removing the empty role that Avant carried will be a huge boost to the Philly offense and likely fantasy owners of his.

Next week we’ll wrap up our 2013 receiver review by looking at touchdown production. Over the summer we’ll be revisiting all of these as we look for breakouts for the upcoming 2014 season, but for now this is mostly just putting a bow on the 2013 campaign.

Stats were provided from ProFootballReference.com and ProFootballFocus.com

Rich Hribar Fantasy Football Analyst

Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. Follow @LordReebs

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