#5 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-5) at #4 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. NBC
Despite finishing tied for the third-best record in the AFC, which likely would have been tied for the second-best had they not played their B Team in Week 17, the Chiefs will have to go on the road on Wild-Card weekend, by virtue of playing in the same division as the Denver Broncos. The fifth-seeded Chiefs will travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium.
This will be a rematch of the Week 16 game played at Arrowhead Stadium, which which proved to be an NFL playoff preview that the Colts won 23-7. In that game, the Indianapolis defense managed to shut down everyone not named Jamaal Charles, especially after the first quarter. It may have been the best defensive showing turned in by the Colts since Chuck Pagano took over.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas City had trouble slowing down the Indy offense. Andrew Luck turned in a solid game, going 26-37 for 241 yards, a touchdown, and 96.8 QB rating. Donald Brown also had his best game of the year with 110 total yards and two touchdowns.
As dominant as the Colts were two weeks ago, the postseason provides a new challenge. And having played so recently, they are very familiar with each other. Here are a few things to watch for in the playoffs’ opening matchup.
QUARTERBACK BATTLE – Neither starting QB in this game has much postseason experience, though Alex Smith would seem to have the upper hand. He started two games in the 2011 playoffs, while Luck played in just one last year, and Smith played very well in those two games. He posted a 101.0 combined passer rating, while throwing for five touchdowns without an interception. Had it not been for Kyle Williams’ fumble of a punt in overtime against the Giants in the NFC Championship Game, Smith may have played in a Super Bowl.
As for Luck, his foray into January football was not as successful. Facing a Ravens team that got hot late in the year, he attempted 54 passes, completing 28 of them, and was kept out of the endzone, while also throwing an interception. He ended the game with a meager 59.8 QB rating. He and his Colts lost in the AFC Wild-Card Round 24-9, ending his successful rookie season.
During this past regular season, Luck improved in what was his second year. While he was not called upon to throw as much, he significantly improved his efficiency. His completion percentage and QB rating both went up, he still threw 23 touchdown passes on 57 fewer attempts, and he cut his interception and fumble totals about in half.
Smith also enjoyed one of his better seasons, playing in Kansas City and under Andy Reid for the first time. He set career highs in pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns, and led the Chiefs offense to a tie for sixth in the NFL in points per game. Still, though, during a five game period in the first half of the season, he had four games without a touchdown pass and a 3:4 TD:INT ratio. In his final eight games, he turned that around, with 16 TDs and only 3 INTs. The better field general in this one will give his team an advantage.
JAMAAL CHARLES – The key to any Colts victory would start with shutting down, or at least limiting, Jamaal Charles. He has been the star of the Chiefs attack all season, finishing the year as the team’s leading rusher and receiver with 1,980 total yards and 19 TDs. In their Week 16 meeting, Charles got off to a quick start against the Colts, rushing for 45 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter. After that, though, the Indy defense forced Kansas City to abandon the run and kept him from doing anymore real damage on the ground, but he was still able to finish with 144 total yards.
Charles has been one of the most valuable players in all of football this season and needs to be the focal point of the KC offensive game plan. Falling behind early would prove dangerous, as it could force Reid to go to the air. Indianapolis gave up 2,002 rushing yards this season, which was seventh-highest in football. In that Week 16 game, he averaged 8.2 yards per carry in his 13 attempts. The only time he had fewer carries was the week prior when he also had 195 receiving yards. The Chiefs will need to keep Charles involved in the offense.
SAFETY FIRST – The Chiefs have owned one of the NFL’s best defenses all season long, allowing just 19.1 points per game, tied for fifth-best in the league, and they have built their defense around turnovers. They forced an AFC-best 36 this season, which also helped them lead the league in turnover differential at +18.
However, the Colts have kept the ball safe this year. They committed just 14 turnovers, which was football’s best. Coupled with the 27 turnovers they forced, their +13 differential was the conference’s second-best. Both teams like to force turnovers, but neither likes to give the ball away. During the Colts’ regular season win, there were four giveaways, and they all came from Kansas City. Smith threw an interception and lost two fumbles, while Knile Davis also coughed one up. The turnover battle will be a huge part of this game.
NOTES – The Colts are 15-8 all-time against the Chiefs… This is the fourth time the two teams have met in the playoffs and the first since 2007. The Colts have won all three previous meetings… During the regular season, the Chiefs were 1-5 against playoff teams. The Colts were 4-2… Indianapolis is the first team since the 2002 Chiefs, and just the second team in the last 26 years, to lead the NFL in fewest penalties and fewest turnovers committed… The Colts are a 2.5-point favorite in this game… The Chiefs had the best road record in the NFL during the regular season at 6-2. The Colts were 6-2 at home… The Chiefs allowed 12.3 points per game during their 9-0 start, but 27.7 points per game, while going 2-5, in the seven games since… The Colts have allowed 20 total points in their last three games.
