You weren’t the only one to go down in spectacular fashion thanks to Ladarius Green’s Week 14 zero spot.
The tight end in a wide receiver’s body caught precisely no passes against the Giants in Week 14, torching re-draft playoffs squads and daily fantasy teams the world over. We thought — I thought — he had become an established part of the San Diego offense that had thrived with his emergence.
A week after playing 91 percent of the Chargers’ offensive snaps, Green played 42 percent of the team’s snaps against Big Blue. He ran a grand total of seven pass routes. The devastating lesson: he’s not ready for fantasy football prime time.
We have a glut of fantastic streaming options this week, including one who will be disguised as a slot receiver against a heinous secondary, one who would’ve been a top-5 guy had he played all season, and another who gets a matchup against Arizona’s linebackers and safeties.
Jacob Tamme (DEN) at San Diego Chargers
It was Tamme, to the surprise of many, who was Wes Welker’s clear backup when Welker was helped off the field last week after suffering his second concussion of the 2013 campaign. Tamme, Peyton Manning’s trusty old security blanket back in Indianapolis, will experience an opportunity spike unseen in fantasy football this season if Welker misses Thursday’s game against San Diego.
Let’s apply our old fantasy points per route run (FPPRR) metric — made possible by Pro Football Focus stats — to Tamme’s Week 15 prospects.
Tamme has an FPPRR of .26 this season, reflecting his limited usage after Julius Thomas’ seizing of the starting tight end gig. Welker, on average, runs 30.7 pass routes from the slot in Peyton’s Perfect Machine. That means Tamme, if he maintains that very maintainable .26 FPPRR, should be in line for eight fantasy points. He should average 13.8 points in points per reception (PPR) leagues.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that Welker reeled in three catches for 21 yards in Denver’s first meeting with the Chargers, back in early November. Tamme’s opportunity, however, is tough to turn down.
Dennis Pitta (BAL) at Detroit Lions
Pitta, my preseason love, is in line to emerge as a fantasy football postseason hero.
Pitta, in his return from a serious hip injury, played 36 snaps after Ravens coaches babbled all week about the tight end being on a strict snap count. John Harbaugh hates your fantasy team.
Joe Flacco targeted Pitta 10 times — or about once for every three routes Pitta ran against Minnesota. He caught six balls for 48 yards and a late score. It was just a glimpse of why I thought Pitta would be a locked-in top-5 fantasy tight end in 2013.
I wrote back in May about why I was so high on Pitta’s prospects. It boils down to this: his 2012 production hinged almost entirely on Anquan Boldin’s usage. Pitta and Boldin were used interchangeably for most of last season, leaving one or the other to post big stat lines.
The Lions have been one of fantasy’s stingiest defenses against tight ends, allowing a schedule-adjusted 6.1 points per game. Only five defenses are better against tight ends. I think Pitta — available in about 75 percent of leagues — could transcend that thanks to a glut of targets in a game that will see Flacco throw the ball a lot, thanks to Detroit’s vicious front seven set to mutilate Baltimore’s dead-on-arrival run game.
It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a dozen targets for Pitta on Monday night.
Delanie Walker (TEN) vs. Arizona Cardinals
So what if Jared Cook couldn’t deliver on his optimal matchup with a Cardinals’ defense giving up a league-high 15.4 points per game to tight ends. Walker, a favorite of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, is an instant top-8 play this week against Arizona.
Walker, who is tentatively expected back from a concussion that kept him out of Week 14’s game in Denver, was fantasy football’s fifth highest scoring tight end from Weeks 10-13 thanks to Fitzpatrick’s insistence on feeding the hulking pass catcher. Walker averaged a hefty 6.2 targets per contest during that span, including a 10-target, 10-catch performance against the Colts.
Those rolling with Walker couldn’t ask for a more favorable matchup. Tight ends have caught five or more balls against Arizona in all but two games this season. That’s remarkable. Don’t let Cook’s disappointing Week 14 effort against Arizona make you hedge on Walker.
