The last time we visited our old friend FPPRR was after week six of the season, and while some things have stayed the course, some others have changed. By now, every team has played at least ten games, and through excellence and injuries, some PPR stars have emerged. Before week 12 kicks off, and the fantasy season hits the last turn, let’s break down who is who, and who isn’t in world of FPPRR.
The fantasy points per route run (FPPRR) metric is created with Pro Football Focus’s route running data from 2008-2012.
The Elite
Players with the most receiving points paired with a far above FPPRR score
|
PLAYER |
RT/GAME |
RT/TGT |
RT/REC |
REC PTS |
FPPRR |
|
Danny Woodhead |
19.8 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
121.4 |
0.61 |
|
Darren Sproles |
17.5 |
3 |
3.6 |
106.3 |
0.61 |
|
Pierre Thomas |
20.3 |
3.6 |
4 |
103.9 |
0.51 |
|
Jamaal Charles |
28.3 |
3.6 |
5.8 |
99.3 |
0.35 |
|
Giovani Bernard |
18.5 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
94.5 |
0.47 |
|
Matt Forte |
26.8 |
4.3 |
5.4 |
93.2 |
0.35 |
|
Reggie Bush |
23.2 |
3.9 |
5.8 |
84.6 |
0.40 |
|
Knowshon Moreno |
21.8 |
4.8 |
5.9 |
76.6 |
0.35 |
|
Marshawn Lynch |
19.4 |
5.2 |
6.5 |
58.2 |
0.37 |
Even through suffering some slight regression, something that all San Diego players have suffered over the past five weeks (except Ryan Mathews), Woodhead still remains on the top of the list. He’s been RB19 or better in eight of his ten games and remains a set and forget RB2 in PPR leagues.
This metric was basically created for Sproles, defining a running back’s PPR prowess without the weight of rushing statistics. Despite never reaching 100 carries in any season of his career, he’s already eclipsed 100 points receiving for the fifth consecutive year. Battling through a litany of injuries, inconsistent usage and a drop in touchdown production, he’s still what PPR dreams are made from.
FPPRR is also just one of the many metrics that point to Pierre Thomas being one of the most efficient players in the league, even though his season long usage doesn’t always equate to fantasy stardom. Consistent since 2008, Thomas has scored a .45, .47, .49, .48, .37 and is currently right on that same track again in 2013. He currently resides as RB10 headed into week 12.
Charles already has already bested his career high of 45 receptions in a season (2010) through only ten games this year. He’s having his best accumulative season as a pro and has nine top nine weekly finishes on the season.
Bernard’s 147 touches on the season are the fewest out of all of the top ten scoring running backs, and that’s with playing one extra game than all of the others besides Lynch and Fred Jackson. In fact, he has 278 more yards from scrimmage on 18 fewer touches than teammate Benjarvus Green-Ellis.
Moreno is likely the MVP of PPR leagues considering where he was drafted. His career .34 FPPRR certainly was one of a few reasons to have him on your draft radar this summer. His four top three weekly finishes are the most out of all fantasy backs.
Something getting little buzz is the added receiving boost Lynch is providing owners this season. For the first time since 2009, he’s averaging over two receptions per game and his 24 catches are only four behind the most receptions he’s had in a season since 2008. He already has a career high in touchdown receptions (two) and is only 78 yards away from his career high when he caught 47 passes for 300 yards in 2008.
Pump Up the Volume
As we laid out in our original breakdown on why FPPRR is important, we noted that insane usage can trump a below the mean score. Here are the players benefiting from that workload.
|
PLAYER |
RT/GAME |
RT/TGT |
RT/REC |
REC PTS |
FPPRR |
|
LeSean McCoy |
25.5 |
6.7 |
8.3 |
79.9 |
0.28 |
|
Chris Johnson |
25.8 |
8.6 |
10.8 |
58.8 |
0.23 |
|
Fred Jackson |
17.6 |
4.4 |
6.1 |
56.5 |
0.29 |
|
Ray Rice |
22.1 |
4.3 |
5.5 |
53.8 |
0.27 |
|
Le’Veon Bell |
25 |
5.1 |
7.3 |
47.8 |
0.27 |
Chris Johnson is one the usual suspects on this list. He’s had only one above average score since 2009, mainly due to him never coming off of the field. The good news is that he already has more receiving points than he had in all of 2012.
Rice has had nearly all of his agility sapped out of him from the hip injury he suffered in week two. He was the face of PPR leagues along with Sproles, and with the Ravens having little outside of him and Torrey Smith, this season has been a colossal disappointment. It seems like a long shot for him to even sniff the 140 receiving points he’s averaged over the past four seasons, where he’s been a top five performer each year.
Bell’s rushing stats leave a ton to be desired, averaging only 3.1 YPC on 120 carries. He’s been a pleasant surprise though in the passing game, and that boost has helped him have five consecutive weeks as a top 22 weekly back. He’s had at least three catches and 20 receiving yards in six of his seven games played.
Underlying Stars
Given more of workload, these players could shine
|
PLAYER |
RT/GAME |
RT/TGT |
RT/REC |
REC PTS |
FPPRR |
|
Jacquizz Rogers |
17.1 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
73.7 |
0.43 |
|
Chris Ogbonnaya |
16 |
3 |
4.7 |
69.7 |
0.44 |
|
Joique Bell |
17.2 |
4.4 |
5.7 |
64.4 |
0.37 |
|
Andre Ellington |
14.9 |
3.8 |
5.7 |
54.6 |
0.37 |
|
Rashad Jennings |
13.1 |
4.2 |
5.7 |
41.8 |
0.32 |
|
Donald Brown |
7.3 |
4.1 |
4.9 |
36.3 |
0.50 |
|
CJ Spiller |
9.7 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
32.8 |
0.34 |
Silent G is tied with all backs in routes run per target and is slowly starting to gain carries in the running game to go with his steady diet of PPR contributions. His ceiling is extremely limited until that happens regularyl, but he’s very likely to finish 2013 as a top 30 back due his steady floor.
Ellington is the big fantasy catch that keeps shaking his way off of the end of our line. His efficiency per touch is off the charts and has been beaten to nauseating levels. Let’s just all agree that Rashard Mendenhall has something very disturbing on Bruce Arians that he’s using to stay in the lineup and move on.
One interesting note in a season filled with Spiller disappointment, is that he isn’t even being used in the passing game. He has been above average per snap (career .38 FPPRR), but his routes run per game are way down from the 15.1 he was running last season, when he added 100.9 points out of the backfield. We can assume the injuries to his ankle and knee have played a part in that extinguished role, as he hasn’t had more than three catches in a game since week two.
The Vereen Effect
|
PLAYER |
RT/GAME |
RT/TGT |
RT/REC |
REC PTS |
FPPRR |
|
Shane Vereen |
29 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
27.3 |
0.47 |
|
Brandon Bolden |
18 |
5.5 |
7.4 |
27.7 |
0.22 |
We all know that Vereen is better than Bolden, but you can see just how much better he is here. In only two games, he has equaled Bolden’s season point total. Beyond my own personal, unhealthy affection for him, this also shows how important of a cog that he is the Patriot wheel.
The Duds
Players that provide almost nearly zero PPR boost
|
PLAYER |
RT/GAME |
RT/TGT |
RT/REC |
REC PTS |
FPPRR |
|
BenJarvus Green-Ellis |
9.8 |
27 |
54 |
2.9 |
0.03 |
|
Rashard Mendenhall |
9.9 |
6.6 |
7.1 |
22.8 |
0.23 |
|
Frank Gore |
15 |
7.5 |
12.5 |
24.5 |
0.16 |
|
Eddie Lacy |
15 |
7.1 |
8.4 |
27 |
0.20 |
|
Lamar Miller |
16.3 |
6.8 |
9.6 |
27.1 |
0.17 |
We’ve already touched on the inefficiency of the Law Firm and Mendenhall when talking about their backfield partners. Miller has been another fantasy letdown, and he’s actually dwarfed Daniel Thomas in routes run, 163 to 82, but has less than six more receiving points than Thomas (21.2).
Gore and Lacy save their bacon with their solid rushing floors, but their lack of involvement catching the ball shrinks their ceiling just a bit in PPR formats. Gore averaged 51 receptions per season in the four seasons before the arrival of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, but has just 57 total in his 42 games with them.
Stats for this article were provided by Pro-Football-Reference, ProFootballFocus, and NFL.Com
