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Daily Fantasy Football Value Plays: Week 6

Breakdown of this week’s best values on Star Fantasy Leagues, using the dollars per point (DPP) metric. The lower the DPP, the better the deal.

DeMarco Murray
DeMarco Murray

Sep 8, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray (29) runs with the ball after a catch in the first quarter against New York Giants safety Antrel Rolle (26) at AT&T Stadium. Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Sometimes in poker, a great hand loses to the best hand.

You can go all in with your pairs of kings and aces, and smile slyly as your opponent bites, and chases your chips with hers. It’s when she reveals her straight flush — all those cards seeming to laugh at your hubris — that your stomach flip-flops and your money vanishes.

That, more or less, is what happened last week in daily fantasy tournaments, when players whose lineups didn’t feature the likes of Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, Dez Bryant, Julius Thomas, and Terrance Williams likely didn’t make a whole lot of cash.

Stacking daily lineups with players from the Broncos-Cowboys barn burner was a (painful) lesson on why we should listen to Vegas odds makers and their all-knowing over-unders. Vegas told us Dallas and Denver would score points in truckloads, and indeed, they did. Ninety-nine of them, in fact.

Even if your lineup sported standouts that would’ve made daily gamers a little money most weeks, the straight flush of key players from the Dallas-Denver apolcalyptic showdown probably crushed your hopes, especially if your opponent stacked any combination of Romo and Bryant or Williams.

It was too much to overcome.

Remember that this is very much an outlier in daily fantasy, and that solid lineups – most weeks – will put you in the money. There’s no beating a straight flush though.

Remember to take me on in Star Fantasy League’s $2 Week 6 contest. Beat me and instantly double your winnings.

Below is a breakdown of this week’s best values on Star Fantasy Leagues, using the dollars per point (DPP) metric. The lower the DPP, the better the deal.

Week 6 value plays

Player Projected points Salary DPP
Chad Henne 15.9 $6,000 $377
Nick Foles 15.8 $6,000 $379
Terrelle Pryor 19 $11,378 $598
Joe Flacco 18.5 $12,765 $690

 

  • Pryor, as per usual, has the highest fantasy floor of the true quarterback values. The matchup (at Kansas City) is daunting, but we saw how the Chiefs struggled mightily to contain Michael Vick’s run game in Week 2, and while Pryor has become a respectable pocket passer, don’t think for a minute that he’s going to forsake the part of his game that makes him a terrifying duel threat.
  • Henne, in Star Fantasy League’s two-quarterback format, is an irresistible play in a game that will see him throw it upwards of 50 times against Denver’s sieve of a secondary. Justin Blackmon’s return shouldn’t be overlooked here, as he moves coverage away from Cecil Shorts, who was blanketed for the first four weeks of 2013. Henne completed 43 of 76 passes for 476 yards in two starts this season.

 

Player Projected points Salary DPP
LaGarrette Blount 9.7 $3,888 $400
DeMarco Murray 21.1 $12,432 $589
Le’Veon Bell 13.8 $8,206 $594
Doug Martin 18.6 $12,934 $695

 

  • It’s the rarest of rarities to see an elite fantasy back on our value list, but that’s precisely where we find Murray, who has the distinct honor of facing one of the league’s leakiest run defenses. Washington is allowing 4.8 yards per carry – a number that would likely be much higher if teams didn’t find the Washington secondary so accommodating. Murray is a top-5 running back this week. Don’t let his limited Week 5 usage scare you.
  • Blount paid dearly for his transgressions last week. The Hoody benched the lumbering runner after a costly fumble, just as Blount seemed to find his footing against a tough Cincinnati front seven. Blount finished with 51 yards on 12 carries, and while his value hinges on the availability of Stevan Ridley – or one would presume so – I see Blount, who is averaging 4.5 yards per tote, as a cheap nine or 10 points against New Orleans.
  • I wish so much that Bell had a less-than-hellish matchup this week. The Jets are beyond stout; they’ve allowed just five rushes for more than 15 yards through five weeks. Bell is exceedingly cheap in a lot of daily fantasy formats, including Star Fantasy Leagues. If you’re using him against New York, you’re probably banking on a short touchdown plunge.

 

Player Projected points Salary DPP
Justin Blackmon 13.2 $8,813 $667
Cecil Shorts 15 $10,375 $691
Terrance Williams 11 $6,616 $601
Keenan Allen 10.1 $6,537 $647

 

  • I know it seems counterintuitive to invest in Jacksonville’s offense as they roll into Denver as 27.5 point underdogs. There will be plenty of clock-killing incompletions in this one, opening the door for a ton of throws from Henne, the far more fantasy friendly of Jacksonville’s signal calling duo. Shorts leads the NFL in targets, and Blackmon reminded us last week how frighteningly explosive – and tough to corral – he can be after the catch. Cash in on garbage time, and remember: all fantasy points were created equal.
  • Allen, who now has two straight weeks of five catches for more than 80 yards in a Chargers offense with no real running game threat, has been cemented into San Diego’s base offense. The rookie has played 97 percent of San Diego’s offensive snaps since Week 4. He’s seen 14 targets from Philip Rivers over the past two weeks, and he could very well be a money maker for daily gamers, even against a Colts pass defense that ranks 10th in the NFL.

 

Player Projected points Salary DPP
Garrett Graham 11.3 $6,041 $534
Jordan Reed 8.9 $4,100 $460
Sean McGrath 8.4 $5,018 $597

 

  • I went into this DPP breakdown sure that Graham – a top-10 tight end for the next couple months – would be the preeminent value on Star Fantasy leagues. Reed proved me wrong. The rookie has vastly outperformed Fred Davis over the season’s first month, catching 13 of the 16 passes that have come his way. Reed gets the honor of playing a Dallas defense that has been incinerated by tight ends over the past few weeks.
  • McGrath, who posted another respectable PPR line last week (9.5 points), is drawing five targets a game from king of the check down, Alex Smith. He’s far less sexy than Reed or Graham – mostly thanks to his caveman facial hair arrangements – but the price is right.
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