If you read and followed the Buy/Sell/Hold advice from last week, you have already seen some value in return from the now-sidelined Danny Amendola. Perhaps the author should listen to his own advice from time to time. Instead, it cost a top waiver position (for the season) to infuse my receiving corps with Julian Edelman. Maybe someone better will come in later weeks. I think, however, that I’m now sitting on this year’s Laurent Robinson. Only time, or a Gray’s Sports Almanac, will tell.
This is widely known as Overreaction Week, so temper your expectations on all unexpected outcomes from week one. Anquan Boldin is unlikely to see 17 targets a week (or 272 on the season). Terrelle Pryor probably won’t finish second in rushing in 2013; his 112 yards led the league until Monday Night Football’s 184 yards from LeSean McCoy. And Peyton Manning definitely won’t throw seven scores each game (for a 112 touchdown season).
Week Two
Buy Roddy White
I’ve said it many times; White is the most consistent player in fantasy. He’s never missed a start in his 129 game career. If you read my offseason keeper analysis, you already know that no other receiver has finished top 10 (among wide receivers in standard scoring) five times in the last six seasons. White is also the only player coming off six consecutive top 20 campaigns.
White suffered a high-ankle sprain this summer, which came as a surprise this past Sunday to everyone outside the Falcons’ organization. The player and team downplayed the injury until the postgame interviews, when White admitted the severity of his condition. He caught both of his two targets for 19 yards, and confirmed that his use was primarily as a decoy. He elaborated to say that when he’s held out of practice, his fantasy owners should avoid starting him. White missed practice for the second straight day on Thursday, though his official status for week two remains unknown.
A high ankle sprain can linger for more than a month or two, leaving owners in peril over their otherwise-reliable beast. White may return to form later in the season, or this could become an anomaly year for the perennial Pro Bowler. If you’re a risk-taker, the time is ripe to take a swing for Roddy White.
Sell Michael Vick
Chip Kelly and the Chip-Tempo Offense (see what I did there?) sure looked hot for their primetime audience on Monday. The Redskins didn’t look prepared for the pace and speed of the Eagles, who ran 54 snaps in the first half. Vick looked every bit his 2010 NFL Comeback Player of the Year self. He completed 60 percent of his passes for 203 yards and two scores, while running for an additional 54 yards.
All the exciting upside of Vick also comes with a major caveat, though; he makes china dolls like Matt Stafford look like the iron man Brett Favre. Trivia time — do you know how many times has Vick played all 16 games in a season? He’s done so only once, in 2006 for Atlanta. Those who believe he can sustain the grind of 78 snaps per game for very long, will wind up a smaller minority than Ross Perot. You can come along and ride on a Vick-tastic Voyage, but know that you’ve been forewarned. Sell Vick while you still can.
Hold David Wilson
Perhaps the biggest question of the week was what to do with David Wilson. Some owners refuse to start him in week two, and some are ready to cut bait already. Remember, it’s only been one week. It may feel considerably worse, but an off game in week six is no more serious than in week one. Tom Coughlin continued, daily, to reiterate his confidence and commitment to the second-year back. About Wilson’s struggles, Coughlin said this week, “We need him,” and “I’m confident he’s going to learn from it.”
Andre Brown is on injured reserve, unable to play until week 10. De’Rel Scott and Brandon Jacobs are completely unserviceable options behind Wilson; the two combined for 11 carries in 2012. The recently re-signed Jacobs has admitted not being in shape, having weighed as much as 290 pounds earlier this summer. That leaves little choice but for the New York Football G-Men to continue to invest time and faith in the young fumbler.
Wilson’s first game of 2013 may have been abysmal, rushing seven times for 19 yards (2.7 YPC) and two fumbles. But his upside is tremendous; don’t forget why you have him on your roster. He remains one of the top candidates to become a 2014 first-rounder in redraft leagues. Don’t give up yet. Even if you prefer to move on, a sell-high opportunity should present itself in time.
Stats courtesy of pro-football-reference.com.
