Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew may have divulged a piece of actionable fantasy football advice last week.
The Jaguars, it turns out, might be part of the up-tempo offensive wave that could have serious and lasting fantasy implications, as skill position players get more opportunities.
I was one of a few fantasy writers on Aug. 22 to interview Jones-Drew and Falcons wide receiver Roddy White, who were promoting DirecTV’s Sunday Ticket package, which offers a bunch of dandy features like instant highlights, the ability to toggle between games, and integration of your NFL.com fantasy league.
I asked MJD, fantasy football’s No. 3 running back as recently as 2011, about what sort of workload he anticipated in 2013. Would he see about 25 touches per contest, as he did in 2010 and 2011, or would he see around 20 touches a game, like he did in his six 2012 contests?
“From what I was told, it’ll be more of the 24-25 touches a game,” Jones-Drew said, adding that game flow would dictate at least some of his usage. “It just depends on how the game plays out.”
What he said next made me raise my eyebrows in an involuntary act of surprise.
“We’re trying to get about 80 or 85 plays a game,” Jones-Drew said.
I reminded him that the Patriots averaged an astounding 72 plays per game in 2012, the most of any team. The Jaguars, meanwhile, averaged 58 plays a game – the fewest of all but four teams.
“Yeah, but we’re faster than they are right now,” Jones-Drew said of the high-speed New England offense. “That’s our goal.”
Maybe, just maybe, the eight-year pro is right.
Jacksonville, in its first two preseason games, averaged 23.8 seconds between offensive snaps, second only to Chip Kelly’s insanely fast-paced attack in Philadelphia. The Eagles have averaged 23 seconds between snaps.
The Jaguars outpaced Kelly’s Eagles in their Week 3 preseason match-up, running 73 offensive plays to Philadelphia’s 70.
Jaguars first-year offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch has made no secret of his up-tempo designs in local media. Fisch reportedly told his offensive linemen to show up to camp in tip-top shape, ready to face to rigors of a non-stop offensive attack.
The notion of an NFL offense averaging 85 plays in a game – meaning there would be some games in which they snap the ball more than 90 times – seems ludicrous, right?
| Team | Pass-Run Ratio | Pass Attempts | Rush Attempts |
| Team A (80 plays/game) | 58-42 | 742 | 537 |
| Team A (80 plays/game) | 55-45 | 704 | 576 |
| Team A (80 plays/game) | 51-49 | 653 | 627 |
The absurdity of it all is breathtaking. If an offense kept that frenetically up-tempo pace for 16 games and leaned toward a decidedly run-heavy approach, their quarterback would still chuck it 653 times, or 29 more attempts than Tony Romo had in 2012.
A pass-heavy approach would net a quarterback 742 attempts in this up-tempo system – the most in league history, shattering Matthew Stafford’s 727 attempts in 2012. I’m not sure the Jaguars’ grand plans include Blaine Gabbert as the pass-happiest signal caller in NFL history.
Another otherworldly scenario this offensive pace would create: the team’s cowbell running back could tote the ball 300 times – a hefty workload – and leave room for another 300-carry runner. We’ve seen teams with two viable fantasy running backs, but nothing close to this.
Do I think the Jaguars will employ the fastest-paced offense in the long and stories history of professional football? To put it simply: no.
Knowing that Jacksonville would like to maintain some semblance of an up-tempo offensive attack, however, is valuable in and of itself.
Jones-Drew is reportedly not thrilled with the way the team has used him so far this preseason. His measly 10 carries in two preseason appearances might be nothing more than a franchise trying to ease its superstar runner back into the fold after missing most of the 2012 campaign with a foot injury.
Jones-Drew, after all, has been a workhorse who puts other workhorses to shame. The guy averaged 361.3 touches from 2009-2011. There are a few miles on those treads.
“I know he’s not satisfied with where he is right now,” Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley after the team’s 31-28 preseason loss to the Eagles. “I know that. He has told me that. Mo-Jo and I have conversations daily on it, on where he needs to be. It’s a trust factor with us, and Dave (Caldwell) has talked to him as well.”
Here’s where an up-tempo offense could instantly raise MJD’s fantasy floor, which has seemed fairly frightening to fantasy owners in the run-up to their late-August drafts.
We won’t assume the Jags will run 80 plays a game because, well, that’s not helpful. It won’t happen. Let’s see what happens if they run 66 plays per contest, or eight more plays per game than they ran in 2012. Let’s also assume that they maintain the 54-46 pass-run ratio from last season, with Jones-Drew receiving 70 percent of the team’s carries.
| Player | Pace | Carries |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 58 plays/game | 298 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 66 plays/game | 340 |
It seems unlikely at best that Jones-Drew would get 340 carries at his advanced running back age, coming off a serious injury. The good news about the potential up-tempo pace is that Jones-Drew could receive just 60 percent of the Jaguars’ carries and still total 291 totes for the year.
This has been a rather long-winded stab at saying that MJD’s comment about the Jaguars’ hopes for an up-tempo approach is nothing but good news for a running back being drafted as the 15th runner off the board.
His 2.05 ADP is a little steep for my liking, unless Jacksonville is truly committed to markedly increasing its plays per game.
