FPPRR: The All Questionable Team

Darren McFadden?

Throws remote.

Ryan Mathews?

Kicks dog.

DeMarco Murray?

Cries self to sleep.

It can be hard to hide our scorn for certain players who have burned us before.  We’ve all been there, kicked to the curb like a jilted lover by a player we thought would carry us over the fake football threshold.

Today, I’m asking you to consider taking these players back in your loving embrace, because all provide ample value in points per reception leagues coming in to 2013. To illustrate that value, let’s call on an old friend, FPPRR.

The fantasy points per route run (FPPRR) metric is created with Pro Football Focus’s route running data from 2008-2012.

MURRAY

Let’s start with Murray, he’s missed nine games over his first two seasons with hamstring and ankle issues. He’s also a man with sneaky reception value that is ignored because his legs are seemingly made from paper mache.

In his 17 starts, Murray has amassed 56 receptions while performing right on the FPPRR baseline. His production is good but not great per route and the opportunity for volume exists in as he’s followed by mid-level talent on the depth chart.

One other thing going for Murray is that Jason Garrett and Tony Romo also have a history of supporting backs in the passing game.

You can tell from above that when Dallas hasn’t had to deal with injuries at the running back spot, the feature back flourishes. Felix Jones and Marion Barber qualified for elite FPPRR seasons (.32 score combined with 215+ snaps in route) in 2008 and 2010 on their way to top 24 PPR finishes.

Murray is by far attached to the most explosive offense and quarterback of these three. Dallas has weapons everywhere that will create plenty of space for him to work as an outlet for Romo. If he maintains his current averages per start, here’s what the 2013 season may end up looking like.

MCFADDEN

By nearly all accounts, 2012 was an unmitigated disaster for Run DMC. Although he started the second most games in a season (12) for his career, he averaged a minuscule 3.3 yards per carry as Oakland installed a new zone blocking scheme under offensive coordinator Greg Knapp.

As J.J Zachariason pointed out, there’s optimism for McFadden’s rushing success to return to form. We also don’t need to worry about him in the passing game either, as he’s been arguably the Raiders’ best receiver over the past five seasons.

McFadden has been a FPPRR standout in four of his first five seasons. His 2010 score is the third highest score in the past five years out of all qualifying backs, behind only 2008 Darren Sproles and 2010 Marcel Reece.

In fact, over just the past three seasons, he averages 7.2 receiving points per game. Oakland could very well be a team that resembles what the Vikings looked like last season on offense.

With their receiver group and quarterback situation, they expect to be reliant on a short conservative passing game to be able to move the football. The other glaring point is they aren’t likely to be very competitive either. McFadden should see plenty of accommodating coverages late in ball games as teams give away the middle of the field.

I’m expecting his yards per catch to be more in line with the past two seasons (7.1 YPR) than the gaudy yards per catch he averaged (10.8) over his first three seasons.  This is in anticipation of what I believe will be a dink and dunk offense with few vertical big plays. Here is McFadden’s range of outcomes based on games played.

Using the lower yards per reception combined with his career route usage, you can see that McFadden, while only even playing 75 percent of a season is a PPR factor. If he miraculously played an entire season, he could likely eclipse these numbers with ease as the 16 game production is not far off from his 2012 receiving totals.

MATHEWS

Part of the disdain for Mathews is that he was the breakout flavor of choice for many last season. He’s missed six games over his first two seasons with various ankle, groin and calf injuries. But last year he was sidelined with a broken clavicle not once, but twice.

I treat those types of injuries with a grain of salt as opposed to lumping them into the “injury prone” argument. That’s more of a fluky occurrence to me as opposed to labeling him the new Elijah Price.

Mathews has a tantalizing ADP (5.02 per Fantasy Football Calculator) for a feature back. Sure, Danny Woodhead will cut into his share of passing downs, but that already happened last year with Ronnie Brown. Mathews is going to get the bulk of carries if he’s wearing a jersey that weekend.

Even with that reduced role, Mathews was still far above the mean in FPPRR. Despite only  making an appearance in 12 games, he still posted as many receiving points as Jamaal Charles (65) and more than Chris Johnson (58.6) did while playing a full season last year.

The reason for that is, in a large part, due to Philip Rivers. If you took Rivers to a steakhouse he’d order the chicken fingers. Although Rivers is a bit of a gambler, and loves to throw jump balls to his tall receivers, he’s always favored the checkdown to his backfield outlet players.

In the past three seasons, 35 percent of Rivers’ completed passes have gone to a running back. Chargers backs have caught a combined average of 125 balls per season over the same time. Even with Woodhead in the fold, there’s plenty of pass catching opportunity in San Diego, especially with new head coach Mike McCoy preaching a more conservative approach on offense.

Let’s not forget that in 2011 when Mathews snagged 50 passes that Mike Tolbert also pulled in 54. Based on what we know from his prior production, here’s what may be in line for him this season.

The facts are that these three players have combined to miss 42 career games and have made us sweat out countless Sunday mornings waiting for inactive reports to be released.

Let’s face it; some of you are not going touch any of these guys based on uncertainty and a perceived future sense of them missing more time.

That may be true, it may not, but a lot of that uncertainty is already built into their 2013 cost. I’m not recommending you go all in and build a stable around all of them, but there’s a clear value opportunity here.

All three players are 26 years old or younger with relatively little football tread on them.  If you are an owner who casts his line in search of a big catch, one of these players may be on your hook come September.

*Stats for this article were provided by Pro-Football-Reference, ProFootballFocus, and NFL.Com

Rich Hribar Fantasy Football Analyst

Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. Follow @LordReebs

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