Fantasy Baseball Rest-of-Season Projections: Traded Players

Jake Peavy
Jul 20 2013 Chicago IL USA Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jake Peavy 44 reacts after giving up a home run during the second inning against the Atlanta Braves at US Cellular Field Jerry Lai USA TODAY Sports

There may not have been a lot of moves made but the ones that were will certainly have an impact on your fantasy production. Trades can make or break a season, just take a look at some of the players that were dealt at the deadline last year:

Hanley Ramirez:

On the Marlins, Before Trade: 93 G, .246/.322/.428, 14 HR, 48 RBI, 49 R, 14 SB

On the Dodgers, After Trade: 64 G, .271/.324/.450, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 30 R, 7 SB

Ryan Dempster:

On the Cubs, Before Trade: 104 IP, 5-5, 2.25 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 K/27 BB

On the Rangers, After Trade: 69 IP, 7-3, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 70 K/25 BB

Ichiro Suzuki:

On the Mariners, Before Trade: 95 G, .261/.288/.353, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 49 R, 15 SB

On the Yankees, After Trade: 67 G, .322/.340/.454, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 28 R, 14 SB

Jeremy Guthrie:

On the Rockies, Before Trade: 90.2 IP, 3-9, 6.35 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 45 K/31 BB

On the Royals, After Trade: 91 IP, 5-3, 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 56 K/19 BB

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the five biggest players drafted and how the trades will affect their fantasy production the rest of the way.

Jake Peavy: 8-4, 4.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 76 K/17 BB, 14 HR, 80 IP

When we look at other starting pitchers acquired by the Red Sox in recent years, we see a significant uptick in ERA. It’s true for Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett and I have a feeling it will be for Peavy as well. Aside from the Red Sox, the AL East is home to three of the American League’s top six offenses. Pitching in Fenway is no picnic either. According to Baseball Reference’s Neutralized Pitching, his 4.28 ERA would be closer to 4.86 had he been playing for the Red Sox. His 3.37 ERA last season would be closer to 3.81 on the BoSox. It’s a tough division to pitch in and Peavy wasn’t exactly killing it in Chicago. I think the long ball could be his demise in the final two months of the season.

Fearless Prediction: 12-8, 4.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 132 K

Matt Garza: 7-1, 2.95 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 73 K/23 BB, 9 HR, 85.1 IP

Garza looks better than we have ever seen him and I’m reluctant to make any definitive statements here because there’s no way I would’ve predicted he would be this good through 85 IP. With that in mind, I defer to the SJN AccuScore Projections which have him at 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 58 K/18 BB the rest of the season. That sounds about right though I always have my worries about pitchers in Texas. At the same time, if guys like Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando can put up ERAs in the low-3.00s, so can Garza.

Fearless Prediction: 13-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131 K

Alfonso Soriano: .256/.287/.467, 18 HR, 55 RBI, 51 R, 25 2B, 10 SB

Soriano was the only real bat acquired by anyone this season and fantasy owners should be thrilled that he’s moving to the Yankees. No one thought Soriano could repeat his 32 HR/108 RBI campaign from last season but he’s doing a good job of trying with 44 XBH through 383 at-bats. SJN’s AccuScore Projections have him at 10 HR, 31 RBI, and 22 R the rest of the season. That sounds about right and he could certainly make a run at 30 playing in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. With Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson returning from their injuries, the Yankees will have added three All-Star caliber bats for the rest of the season and they already ranked seventh in offense in the month of July (compared with 12th on the season).

Fearless Prediction: .263 BA, 28 HR, 86 RBI, 75 R, 14 SB

Bud Norris: 7-9, 3.89 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 98 K/45 BB, 13 HR, 132 IP

Norris is having a decent season, though it’s been tainted by an 8.00+ ERA over his last three starts before being traded. The thing to keep in mind, as with Jake Peavy, moving to the AL East seldom bodes well for a pitcher, just ask R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, or Josh Johnson. According to Baseball Reference’s Neutralized Pitching, his 3.93 ERA playing in Houston and against the AL West would be around 4.50 playing in Baltimore against the AL East. His 4.33 career ERA would be around 4.87. SJN’s AccuScore Projections have him putting up a 4.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP the rest of the season which seems fair and hopefully not overly optimistic, I’m inclined to go a little higher.

Fearless Prediction: 11-13, 4.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 145 K

Ian Kennedy: 3-8, 5.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K/48 BB, 18 HR, 124 IP

San Diego is as pitcher friendly as you can get and while other pitchers are moving to hostile territory, Kennedy is staying in his own division where no team outside of the Dodgers are hitting. All this could be enough to make a guy with a 5.23 ERA semi-fantasy relevant. According to Baseball Reference’s Neutralized Pitching, Kennedy’s 5.23 ERA in hitter-friendly Arizona would be around 4.61. His 4.02 ERA last season would have been around 3.56 in San Diego. SJN’s AccuScore Projections have him at 4-4 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 61 K the rest of the season which sounds about right.

Fearless Prediction: 7-11, 4.65 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 168 K

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