It has been a disastrous start to the 2013 NHL Playoff Conference Finals for both the Pittsburgh Penguins and Los Angeles Kings. The two teams I expected to get to the Stanley Cup Finals are facing 0-2 deficits in their respective series. While the Kings’ games were a little bit closer (notably game one) and Kings goalie Jonathan Quick has looked better than his numbers indicate seeing as he has both the Chicago Blackhawks and teammate Robyn Regehr scoring on him (0:50 mark), the fact remains both teams are facing the same deficit. Is there much hope for either team to come back in their series?
Boston Bruins vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
To Boston’s credit, they have played two of the best road games I’ve seen from any team in these playoffs (relatively speaking, that is). In game one, Boston did what I thought they would do and tried to push the Penguins around. To their credit, they did it in the way they had to: little pokes to the legs, cross-checks after the whistle, bumps on the way to the benches to change. They didn’t maul Pittsburgh, they did just enough to throw them off their game. This culminated at the end of the second period when Evgeni Malkin, a former Art Ross, Conn Smythe and Hart Trophy winner got into a fight with Patrice Bergeron. The coincidental major penalties, and consequent play that didn’t have a whistle for a while, kept Malkin off the ice for about seven minutes, or 12% of the entire game. If you can keep one of the most talented players off the ice for 12% of the game just because he is frustrated, you’re doing something right.
The most notable aspect of game two was Pittsburgh’s lack of clean zone entries and sustained zone time. While data like this is sparse for playoff hockey – this is one of the biggest issues in compiling NHL data, there isn’t a centralized database for metrics like FanGraphs in baseball – it seemed every time Pittsburgh tried to enter the zone, they were met by an aggressive back-checker and defenseman and then the puck was supported from there. Boston did a wonderful job at playing defense by supporting each other – leaving players to have 1 on 1 battles with the likes of Crosby and Malkin is not advisable – creating turnovers (Pittsburgh has 12 giveaways to Boston’s 2) and getting the puck out (most of the time cleanly).
In a series like this, the advanced metrics don’t mean a whole lot. Firstly, small sample size is an issue. Secondly, and much more importantly, once a team gets down 2-0 or 4-1 in the third period, their game plan goes pretty much out the window and it’s not an effective way to truly measure the prowess of a team at even-strength.
So what does Pittsburgh need to do to turn things around? This is up to their coach. Pittsburgh is not getting much in the way of sustained pressure thanks to Boston’s support defense; Pittsburgh is not taking care of the puck as they are losing the giveaway battle 20-3; Pittsburgh is not playing good team defense. By good team defense, I mean this:
- On Boston’s first goal in game two, Penguins F Sidney Crosby gave the puck away at the blue line to Brad Marchand, skated hard for a zone, and coasted once he got into his defensive zone. Whether he would have caught Marchand or not is debatable, but he didn’t even give himself a chance.
- On Boston’s third goal, Pittsburgh just watched Boston pass the puck around the slot and didn’t take out bodies like good defensive players should in this situation.
- On Boston’s fourth goal, Marchand and Matt Cooke were jousting with each other at Boston’s blue line. Cooke just let him go, Marchand took off and Cooke never caught him on the back check.
Good team defense takes place all over the ice. It could be checking a potential break-away player at the offensive blue line (goal 4), it could be back-checking hard in the neutral zone (goal 1) or it could be marking open men in your own zone (goal 3). But there needs to be a commitment to team defense all over the ice and Pittsburgh certainly is not doing that.
At the moment, the best way I can describe it is that Boston wants to win while Pittsburgh expects to win. There’s nothing inherently wrong with expecting to win but you had also better expect to do what is necessary to win. Boston is doing that, Pittsburgh is not. It’s up to Penguins coach Dan Bylsma to make the adjustments both offensively and defensively and get his team to buy in. He has one day to do it. Good luck with that.
Chicago Blackhawks vs Los Angeles Kings
Remember how I said Pittsburgh wasn’t getting clean zone entries and this meant they weren’t getting a lot of sustained pressure? Chicago is doing to Los Angeles what Boston is doing to Pittsburgh. This is kind of a weird notion since I fully expected Los Angeles to do that to Chicago and not the other way around.
Game one was not a 2-1 game. Chicago finished the game with a 46-31 Corsi For advantage, meaning Chicago was maintaining puck possession at a much higher rate than Los Angeles was. It’s not a complete shock that Chicago did that in game one – they were the regular season President’s Trophy winner for finishing with the most points – but to that degree? Los Angeles was the best possession team in the regular season, I didn’t expect them to get dominated so badly.
What has gone so wrong for Los Angeles? The depth of Chicago has been without a doubt the biggest issue. The Kings have done a fairly good job of shutting down Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews (they have combined for just two points in two games) but the supporting cast is pulling through: Marian Hossa has two points, Patrick Sharp has three, Bryan Bickell has two, Brandon Saad has two and so on. This depth on Chicago is killing the depth on Los Angeles.
An area I expected a lot more out of has been the Kings’ defense. Rookie defenseman Jake Muzzin led all NHL defensemen by a mile in On-Ice Corsi this year and for some reason he was healthy scratched in game two (huh?). Meanwhile, veteran defenseman Robyn Regehr has been pretty bad for the Kings these playoffs (yet got rewarded with a contract extension?) even when you factor in quality of competition. As I said earlier, he’s already scored on his own net and that gives him as many goals on his own net as he’s scored on his opponents in his last 129 games (regular season and playoffs). Even worse? Regehr, who has 30 goals in 943 career regular season games, saw 30 seconds of power-play time early in the third period. In a 4-1 game. In the Conference Finals. I digress.
With the series shifting back to Los Angeles, I expect a couple of wins from the Kings. Not only have they been considerably better at home these playoffs – a +10 goal differential at home but are -7 on the road – but having the last change as the home team should be greatly beneficial for them. They can now match-up their checkers against Chicago’s skill players which will hopefully free up room for Los Angeles’ skill players to create some offense. Jonathan Quick always has the ability to steal a game and Los Angeles is a very complete hockey team. As the cliché goes “a series doesn’t start until a road team wins a game”.
I think Los Angeles has a better chance of coming back in their series than Pittsburgh does. At every turn, the Penguins look out-matched and out of sorts, not to mention the mess that is their goaltending situation. Los Angeles is a very good hockey team from top to bottom and hasn’t played a game on home ice yet. Either way, let’s hope these series get interesting because they haven’t been so far.
