No job in sports has a higher turnover than Major League closer. Less than six weeks in, the Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Tigers, and Diamondbacks all have different closers than when they started the season. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, there may be something to the idea that drafting below-top tier closers is a waste of a draft pick, especially with plenty more changes coming. Let’s take a look at two new closers to grab, a couple of offensive players to snatch up while no one is looking, and some guys you can get rid of to make room.
Buy:
Junichi Tazawa: Strong Buy. With Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan (who now needs surgery) on the DL, the Sox have turned to 26-year-old Tazawa at closer. This in itself gives him temporary value but combined with his very good start (2.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 19 K/3 BB) and his phenomenal season last season (1.43 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 45 K/5 BB) make him a decent candidate to keep the job if he plays well. He wouldn’t be the first temporary closer to keep the job, see Edward Mujica, Andrew Bailey (ironically), maybe even Kevin Gregg.
Heath Bell: Solid Buy. With J.J. Putz out with an elbow injury, Heath Bell looks to be the most likely closer candidate. Bell struggled badly last season, putting up a 5.09 ERA and 1.56 WHIP and blowing eight of 27 save opportunities on an otherwise equally terrible Marlins team. At the same time, he put up a 2.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 132 SV over his last three seasons for the Padres. He’s not likely to repeat those numbers but you can live with a closer with a 4.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP if he also has 12.6 K/9 and a 6.67 K/BB.
Dayan Viciedo: Strong Buy. Viciedo has been out with a strained oblique and is set to return by the weekend which means it’s time to prey on other owners’ restlessness. Between the injury and the two home run, five RBI, .229 BA start he is now available in nearly 80% of Yahoo leagues. Take his first 48 at-bats with a grain of salt and snag up a former top prospect who hit 20 home runs in each of his last two minor league seasons before hitting 25 home runs in his first full Major League season in 2012.
Ryan Doumit: Solid Buy. Doumit has had a tough start batting .200 with no home runs and six RBI in his first 70 at-bats but has gotten it going over his last five batting .400 with two homers, five RBI, and six runs. To me, there’s nothing better than an excellent offensive catcher who put up a .275 BA, 18 home runs, and 75 RBI in 2012 and then starts out slow. Exploit everyone’s inability to be patient and snag up a designated hitter capable of hitting 20+ with catcher eligibility.
Sell:
Jimmy Rollins: Jimmy just doesn’t look like Jimmy these days and at 34 it’s understandable. Rollins put up 23 HR, 68 RBI, 102 R, and 30 SB in 2012. This season he is batting .242 with one homer, nine runs batted in, and three steals. He is hitting a lot more doubles (11 in 32 games after hitting 33 in 156 games last season) but those aren’t typically a fantasy category nor have they helped his average any. He’s also struck out 26 times in 132 at-bats after striking out just 96 times in 632 at-bats last season.
Michael Young: That’s one old infield, and while Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are looking similar to their old selves, Rollins and Young are no longer fantasy producers. Unlike Rollins, Young is batting .322. But they’ve mostly been singles. Despite a .322 BA, Young has just one homer, nine runs batted in, and 13 runs. He may help your team’s batting average but, as a rule, singles hitters only have value if they steal or score.
Eric Hosmer: While Rollins and Young have lost their touch, the Royals have a couple of young guys who just can’t seem to get it together. You always have to worry about a guy who’s production drops from 19 HR, 78 RBI, and a .293 BA in his rookie season to 14 HR, 60 RBI, and a .232 BA the following year (despite playing 24 more games). While Hosmer made a decent (later round) pick in the draft, he just doesn’t look like a player poised to hit his potential. With just five extra-base hits through the season and a mere nine RBI and nine runs, Eric Hosmer is just a much younger Michael Young at a position where you can do much, much better.
Salvador Perez: There’s nothing worse than drafting a player based on an estimated pace of how he’d play in a full season. That’s exactly the case with Salvador Perez who put up 11 home runs, 39 RBI, 38 runs, and a .301 BA in 76 games last season. Multiply that by two and you have a full seasons worth, right? Rarely. Sure, at 23 he’s still developing power but he only hit 10 home runs in 2011 and seven home runs in 2010 while playing in the minors. It’s rarely a good bet to go with someone without a track record and Perez owners are feeling that with his one home run, nine runs batted in, and eight runs to start the season.
