Fantasy football average draft positions are fairly static until May, and for good reason. Nothing’s happening, and if it is, the fantasy implications are almost entirely guesswork, with so much time to go before the season.
Now, though, thanks to the NFL Draft, we have something to talk about.
I’m going to use the excellent online tool, Fantasy Football Calculator, to track ADP swings among players seeing dramatic swings in value. I’ll offer twice-monthly ADP reports on some of the biggest fluctuations in value among fantasy-relevant players until July, when I’ll give feed your habit with weekly ADP rundowns.
In August, I’ll let you move in with me and we’ll just talk about ADP all day long.
We should remember that ADP shouldn’t dictate where you take a player, but rather where your league mates might draft him.
Read more about ever-changing fantasy football ADPs…
Fantasy Football Average Draft Positions Sure To Rise: Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Average Draft Positions Sure To Rise: Quarterbacks and Running Backs
Studying ADPs gives us understanding of player’s market value, not a strict guide for where we should target players. Knowing that Player Z is going to be available in Round 8 means it’d be foolish to draft him in Round 5. Knowing general market value is an advantage over those who use ADP as an indicator of where a player should be taken.
I know that’s obvious to many of you, but it bears repeating.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION REPORT: MAY 6
Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets
April 19 ADP: 13.05
May 4 ADP: 7.05
Mike Goodson, RB, New York Jets
April 19 ADP: 7.09
May 4 ADP: 8.11
Traded to the Jets for a fourth-round draft pick and since signed to a three year, $6 million contract, former Saints back Ivory is the presumed running back to own for Gang Green. Probably Ivory will be a two-down back in New York, with Mike Goodson taking passing downs, but given 200 carries this season, Ivory has sudden top-25 running back appeal that hasn’t gone unnoticed.
Isaiah Pead, RB, St. Louis Rams
April 19 ADP: 8.09
May 4 ADP: 9.09
Daryl Richardson, RB, St. Louis Rams
April 19 ADP: 6.04
May 4 ADP: 6.05
The St. Louis Rams traded up to draft Vanderbilt running back Zac Stacy with the 160th pick of the NFL Draft, a move that at least sprinkled frigid water on the #FreeIsaiahPead movement, which had taken hold after high praise from Rams’ coaches. Fantasy footballers should remember that teams don’t trade up in the draft to take guys who they’d like to ride the pine all season. Franchises don’t make that sort of sacrifice to secure a player with no planned role on the team. Rather, teams trade up to secure guys for whom they have very specific plans. Those who were drafting Pead in the eighth round of re-draft leagues realize as much.
Richardson’s almost unchanged ADP is somewhere between interesting and strange. There seems to be a perception that he’s the leading candidate to lead the Rams’ backfield in 2013. He’s not, but knowing that your league mates believe this is invaluable.
Justin Blackmon, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
April 19 ADP: 8.07
May 4 ADP: 9.02
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
April 19 ADP: 8.04
May 4 ADP: 8.06
Blackmon, in case you’ve been hunkered down in your backyard underground bunker this past week, will be suspended for the first four weeks of the 2013 season for substance-abuse violations. And just like we saw when Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes were to miss the first month of the season in 2010, Blackmon’s ADP is set to take a nosedive.  It’s already begun, falling seven spots in five days since the NFL hit Blackmon with the four-game penalty. We could see his ADP drop into the 11th round by August, making him a value and the target of any fantasy owner fixated on long-term results.
I’m not entirely sure what to make of Shorts’ unmoved ADP. It either means owners don’t think Blackmon’s absence will have an impact on Shorts’ fantasy value, or that it will, but Shorts can handle a defense’s No. 1 cover guy.
