In the poker community, when debating who is the best poker player, the debate tends to gravitate towards recent tournament/event wins, while also taking into consideration monetary earnings. The more money a poker pro has earned the better a poker player they’re viewed as, so the argument goes. There’s also the Global Poker Index (GPI) 300, which is a weekly ranking system of the world’s top 300 poker pros.
In fantasy football we look at the match-ups, stats and fantasy points scored on a week-to-week basis to come up with a weekly ranking of the best fantasy players at each position. When it comes to draft time we rely on last year’s play, stat totals and opportunity to help us create our preseason/offseason fantasy football rankings.
One of the most useful tools we have in the fantasy football playing community is Average Draft Position (ADP), data that shows when players at each position are being drafted, and MyFantasyLeague.com (MFL) is one of the best, if not the best website for providing us with ADP information.
The only thing about using MFL ADP data when playing in 2-QB leagues is that there is no specific ADP for 2-QB leagues. As of now, we just don’t have that information available to us, so we use the MFL ADP they have for the quarterback position and the overall ADP to help us with our 2-QB drafting strategy.
I thought it would be interesting to see how the quarterback position ADP changes from time to time and will be doing so in a semi-regular series, with a nod to the GPI 300, titled, Top 30 ADP in 2-QB Leagues. I figured 30 would be a good, round number for the title, but I’ll be including every quarterback that appears in the MFL QB ADP, which when I last checked was at 39.
When looking at the numbers I’m about to analyze, you should focus more on the rankings of the quarterbacks, rather than their actual ADP number, because that ADP is tailored more towards 1-QB leagues.
The goal with this series is to see how the ADP of quarterbacks changes, discuss why it has changed, and what the future may hold.
Now is as good a time as any to unveil the first 2-QB Top 30 ADP installment, as the 2013 NFL Draft will commence this week, and that will surely impact the QB ADP data once the draft is in the books.
Below you’ll find a spreadsheet with MFL QB ADP from three dates: March 14, March 28 and April 21…
Here’s what we can take away from the above QB ADP data:
•The same six names (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick) dominated the top six spots for each ADP ranking, which, as of now, should be expected. In recent seasons Rodgers, Brees and Brady have been mainstays at the quarterback position in fantasy football, with Newton joining the club last season, and Kaepernick’s end of regular season/playoff run last season has a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts drooling at his potential over a full season.
•The one thing that surprises me when you look at the top six of the QB ADP is that Andrew Luck is quite high. Last season Luck finished the year as the 9th highest scoring fantasy quarterback in standard scoring leagues. Yet, so far, early in the off-season, he’s the 6th quarterback taken on average. If you read fellow Jerk C.D. Carter’s article over at RotoViz.com about Luck you’ll see what some of the issues facing Luck are in 2013 and why he shouldn’t be drafted as high as he currently is. I’m just not willing to take him over the likes of Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and Robert Griffin III.
•Other than Matt Ryan holding steady in the QB9 spot, which I feel is low, but shows how deep the QB position is in 2013, the QB7, QB8 and QB10-spots have been interchangeable. In the span of over a month Peyton Manning went from QB10 (March 14) to QB8 (March 28) to QB7 (April 21). Moving up three spots might not seem like a big deal but with Manning’s arm strength improving, and the addition of Wes Welker, Manning should become a more sought-after commodity the closer we get to real fantasy football drafts. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him, at the very least, take over Luck’s QB6 ADP spot, and even crack the top five at some point.
•Robert Griffin III (RG3) is the wildcard right now when it comes to quarterback rankings. Last year’s NFL Rookie of the Year took the NFL by storm, showing why the Washington Redskins traded up to draft him second overall, after Luck. RG3 didn’t disappoint in his debut season, throwing for 3,200 yards, 20 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions, while also adding 815 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground. Those stats made RG3 the 5th highest scoring quarterback in standard fantasy leagues last season; and don’t forget he missed one start and was forced out of parts of other games as well.
RG3’s rehab from ACL and LCL injuries has been said to be progressing rapidly and if that’s the case RG3 should hopefully be ready for the Redskins’ 2013 regular season Week 1 Monday Night Football match-up against the Philadelphia Eagles. Of course we won’t know for certain whether RG3 truly will be ready for the 2013 regular season until we get deeper into the off-season, and right now, as the 10th quarterback taken on average, RG3 will be a huge steal if he’s back to his healthier self. Depending on the injury news of the day look for RG3 to remain around QB10 for now, but he could potentially go as high as QB3.
•If you compare the rest of the March 14th ADP to the April 21st ADP no one QB took a huge loss or gained much in the rankings:
›Michael Vick moved up one spot, from QB17 to QB16, switching spots with Andy Dalton.
›Jay Cutler went from QB20 to QB19, Philip Rivers went from QB19 to QB21 and Ryan Tannehill went from QB21 to QB20.
•The first rookie to make an appearance in any of the ADP rankings was West Virginia’s Geno Smith. Without knowing which team will draft Smith, or in which round, it’s interesting to see Smith has a current ADP of QB23. Draft rumors/mocks have Smith going as high as #2 overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars, to not being drafted at all in the first round. We don’t know anything about any of the rookie QBs, and drafting one now, that high, in 2-QB leagues, is something to avoid. Even if say, Smith, were to get drafted by the Jags, would he automatically be given the starter’s job? Smith still has to compete against Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne and it’s no guarantee he’d win the job. For now Smith should be considered a high QB3 in 2-QB leagues.
•Looking outside of the top-24 (12 team 2-QB league range) Alex Smith and Carson Palmer are the two QB3 candidates most likely to produce as QB2s. Palmer’s 2012 stats were good enough to see him finish last year’s fantasy season as the 17th highest scoring quarterback in standard leagues, and Smith was having himself a more than decent season before his injury/benching, posting career highs in a number of categories such as passing yards, passing touchdowns and rushing yards. (Read that entire article about Smith by ForensicFantasy’s Kyle Wachtel; it’s well worth your time.)
Smith now finds himself in a pass happy Andy Reid system and Palmer gets to throw to Larry Fitzgerald. There are drawbacks to the two though, as Palmer really has no O-Line to protect him and Smith needs to prove himself on a consistent basis.
•Other than figuring out which rookies will be drafted to which teams and whether or not they’ll get a chance to start such as E.J. Manuel, Ryan Nassib and Matt Barkley, the quarterback situation to monitor closely the most can be found in Oakland.
Matt Flynn was acquired by the Oakland Raiders to compete with Terrelle Pryor for the starting quarterback job and the assumption is that the Raiders wouldn’t haven given up two draft picks if they didn’t plan to make Flynn their starting quarterback. However, the Raiders brass have come out saying that both Flynn and Pryor will get a shot at the job and right now Pryor (QB32) is being drafted ahead of Flynn (QB37).
Once the quarterback situation is settled, one of those two will surely make a climb up the ADP rankings, and possibly settle somewhere into the QB28-30 range.
•With RG3’s rehab looking better each day, Kirk Cousins‘ ADP drop shouldn’t come as a surprise. For now he should be considered nothing more than RG3’s handcuff and more of a QB4, than a QB3.
•From the first ADP rankings (March 14) to the latest (April 21), four quarterbacks entered the mix: E.J. Manuel, Drew Stanton, Tyler Wilson, and Matt Flynn, with one quarterback falling out of the ADP completely: Mike Glennon.
Manuel has been getting some first round buzz as of late, Stanton is one Palmer injury away from being the Arizona Cardinals’ starting QB and Glennon was destined for Arizona until Palmer made his way into town. The latter part of the QB ADP is a good place to look for potential QB3-types, and once the NFL Draft is over we could see even more new names added.
This concludes the first installment of the Top 30 ADP in 2-QB Leagues, and we hope it helps you out with your 2-QB draft strategy.
Stats used in this article courtesy of ForensicFantasy.com, NFLData.com, and MyFantasyLeague.com.
