Positive spring training stats don’t mean anything, but poor spring performances can mean the world. Just ask Ricky Romero. This spring we’ve seen many a “star” phone it in on the mound despite facing a steady flow of minor leaguers and backups on the brink of being sent down. If you can’t hack it against non-Major Leaguers, what are you going to do when you have to face the Tigers or the Giants? Let’s take a look at the guys who have given their team plenty of doubts about the upcoming season in less than a month of exhibition play.
Hitters:
Kelly Johnson (TB): 6/48, .125 BA, .422 OPS, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 4 R, 15 K
Johnson did well in Arizona but started to significantly decline in Toronto and hit just .225 with 16 HR, 55 RBI, and 61 R for the Jays last season. I don’t see him doing much more than that for the Rays and he’s off to a rough start already, having struck out in nearly a third of his spring at-bats.
Jason Kipnis (CLE): 7/46, .152 BA, .439 OPS, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R, 11 K
I like Kipnis but the sophomore slump is a very real thing and being stuck in Cleveland, improved outfield or not, isn’t going to help. Aside from the ugly numbers above, he has also grounded into three double plays while walking just twice in 17 games.
Dan Uggla (ATL): 15/72, .208 BA, .570 OPS, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 23 K
Uggla has never made it look pretty but like Johnson he is definitely on the decline and I can’t see him improving on his 19 HR and 79 RBI from last season. He always strikes out a lot but he also walks plenty, leading the league last year with 94. So far this spring he is running away with the strikeout lead but has walked just three times in 25 games.
Adrian Beltre (TEX): 10/44, .227 BA, .575 OPS, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 10 K
Every year there is a guy I have a gut feeling about and this season it’s Adrian Beltre. Maybe it’s because 18 of his 36 homers last year came in the last two months and 11 came in September. Maybe it’s because he’s 34, and on a declining offense. Maybe it’s just because I’m a nitpicky jerk hating on a guy who has driven in 100+ in three straight years but if my gut turns out to be right, you better believe I will be citing this paragraph.
Jason Kubel (ARI): 6/40, .150 BA, .517 OPS, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 15 K
Kubel bounced back nicely in 2012 as he hit 30 homers and 90 RBI in his first season with the Diamondbacks. Although he’s typically a .250-.260 hitter, he is a solid bat and at 31 he hasn’t shown any sign of decline so I wouldn’t worry about his rough spring training. He’s one of the streakiest guys in the league and it’s probably for the best he gets his first cold streak out of the way in March.
Matt Kemp (LAD): 8/43, .186 BA, .614 OPS, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 13 K
Kemp hasn’t looked great this spring but it’s hard to worry about a career .295 hitter who is just a year removed from an MVP-caliber season. As long as he can stay healthy, which he has in every season before 2012, he can make another run at 40-40.
Colby Rasmus (TOR): 6/36, .167 BA, .625 OPS, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 12 K
Rasmus had his best season last year hitting 23 homers with 75 RBI and 75 R. At the same time, he batted just .223 and is a career .243 hitter. I think if the Jays gave Adam Lind a full season (not that they should) he could do about the same. At least he has a ton of great hitters around him to take the pressure off.
Pitchers:
Mike Minor (ATL): 23 IP, 6.26 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 4 HR, 18 SO, 14 BB
I’m not a Mike Minor fan but I think that’s just because guys with 4.10+ ERAs and 26 homers allowed in 30 games aren’t my thing. Minor is off to a horribly wild start, giving up four homers, walking 14, and throwing four wild pitches in just 23 innings. While the rest of the Braves pitchers should be good, I don’t expect much from Minor in 2013.
Kris Medlen (ATL): 23.2 IP, 7.23 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4 HR, 17 SO, 3 BB
Unlike Minor, I think Medlen is actually a good pitcher. Really, he has been burnt by the home run ball this spring and 32 hits allowed isn’t great (even when you factor in the great 5.7 SO/BB ratio). I just think expectations for Medlen need to be severely tempered. Sure, he was amazing last season going 9-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 12 starts last season which is exactly the reason people need to calm down – there is no way any starter is touching anywhere near those numbers consistently. That said, I’d definitely draft Medlen but no where near as high as he has gone in most fantasy drafts this year.
Doug Fister (DET): 19.1 IP, 6.52 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 4 HR, 18 SO, 12 BB
I’m an admitted Fister fan. Unlike Minor’s numbers, a 3.10 ERA and and 1.12 ERA over the last two seasons just does it for me; That is why I’m a bit worried about his struggles through six outings this spring. Not only has he given up four homers and 12 walks in just 19 innings, he’s also thrown three wild pitches. Considering he has a very impressive 0.7 HR/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over his career, those numbers seem very unlike him.
Dan Haren (WAS): 25.1 IP, 6.39 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 7 HR, 18 SO, 5 BB
Haren is trying to rebound from a 2012 season when he produced a 4.33 ERA and 1.29 WHIP before being released by the Angels. He’s off to a rough start so far. He’s been burned by the long ball, giving up a whopping seven homers in just 25 innings. He typically gives up around 25-30 per season at a rate of 1.1 HR/9 but his 2.5 HR/9 in six games can be cause for concern for the Nats. I still think Haren comes back strong this year once he gets away from the spring training park dimensions.
Homer Bailey (CIN): 16.2 IP, 8.64 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 4 HR, 18 SO, 4 BB
Bailey finally had a full healthy season and pitched much better than usual (3.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). Now he’s healthy and getting roughed up in exhibition games. He’s given up four homers and a stammering 29 hits which has limited him to just 16 innings in six starts. He’s always given up around 9.2 H/9 but his 15.7 H/9 definitely needs to come down if he intends to be decent once again.
Brandon Morrow (TOR): 15 IP, 7.80 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 3 HR, 8 SO, 4 BB
I trust Morrow about as much as I trust any email I get from a Nigerian prince. It’s easy to get excited about a guy with a 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 124 IP. That’s just not the norm for Morrow. In the previous three seasons (one with Seattle, two with Toronto) he was 23-22 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Plus he was limited to just 21 starts last year. I’ve always liked his ability to keep the ball in the park (career 0.9 HR/9) but I just can’t see a sub-3.50 ERA from him in 2013 at best.
Roy Halladay (PHI): 12 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 3 HR, 10 SO, 7 BB
Halladay’s horrid spring has been one of the biggest stories of spring training and for good reason. After four straight seasons with sub-2.80 ERAs, Doc inexplicably put up a 4.49 ERA while being limited by injury to just 156 innings. He has looked terrible in five starts in spring, facing 55 batters over just 12 innings – most of which were minor leaguers and backups. I’ve always considered Halladay one of the best pitchers in history but at 36, I’m not sure he can return to the Roy Halladay we saw year in and year out from 2001 to 2011.
Tim Lincecum (SF): 10.2 IP, 10.97 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 10 SO, 7 BB
If you thought Halladay was bad coming off a down year, take one look at the guy who led the league in losses last year. After putting up a horrid 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 33 games (no injuries to blame unlike Halladay), he has given up 13 runs, 17 hits, and seven walks in just 10 innings this spring – facing 56 batters. No one knows what’s wrong with him but everyone knows there is something very, very wrong with the guy who went 62-36 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.17 WHIP from 2008-11 and won back-to-back Cy Youngs.
Every Starter in Oakland: 106 IP, 87 ER
First, the Athletics are nothing without their pitching. Second, the A’s rotation consisted of four rookies last year. Third, the sophomore slump is a very real thing.
Let’s start with Brett Anderson, the only veteran in the rotation (although he’s only pitched 406 innings over four seasons). He’s given up nine earned runs, three homers, and faced 55 batters over just 12 innings giving him a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. This stat worries me the least because Anderson’s problem is staying on the field, not pitching poorly. With 19 starts over the last two seasons, I don’t expect to see much of Anderson once again in 2013.
Jarrod Parker looked great going 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP but has given up 12 runs and 23 baserunners in just 15 innings this spring (facing a whopping 67 batters) giving the 24-year-old a 7.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
Tommy Milone has been the one okay pitcher, with a 4.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in spring, so we’ll disregard him for now and move on to far worse pitching.
A.J. Griffin was very impressive last year, putting up a 3.06 ERA and 1.13 WHIP last season. So far in spring he’s given up 10 runs, seen 19 baserunners, and allowed four homers in just 15 innings, giving him an ERA of exactly 6.00.
Dan Straily only made seven starts last season but looked solid with a 3.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. So far in spring he’s given up 14 runs, an insane 32 baserunners, and has faced 85 batters in just 16.2 IP giving him an ERA of 7.56 and WHIP of 1.92.
Travis Blackley put up a 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 102 IP for the A’s last year but has been atrocious this spring as he’s given up 20 runs and 33 baserunners while facing 70 batters in a mere 12.2 IP. He owns a 14.21 ERA and 2.61 WHIP.
In case the A’s were hoping to lean on Bartolo Colon if the young guys struggled, he doesn’t seem to be doing any better. Although he’s struck out 16 and walked just one, he has also allowed 12 runs on 28 hits and faced 77 batters in just 16 innings giving him an ERA of 6.75 and WHIP of 1.81.
If spring training stats are predictors at least some of the time, there are going to be some disappointed fans and fantasy owners holding on to some A’s starters, an overhyped young starting pitcher from last season, or a steady veteran on the decline. At the same time, if you drafted Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum, you really should’ve known better.
