Halfway through Spring Training, injuries are continuing to claim stars in the American League East. The New York Yankees have already lost Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira for significant time and the Boston Red Sox also look like they will be without power from the middle of their lineup.
Designated hitter David Ortiz is being shut down for about a week due to inflammation in both of his heels. Now, his Opening Day status is even in doubt. For a team with so many question marks heading into the season, this is one more issue they surely don’t want to worry about and one that could have lasting implications.
At this point in his career, health is an ongoing concern with Ortiz and was one of the risks the Red Sox took in signing the 37-year-old to another two-year contract. Last year, he played in just 90 games as an Achilles injury derailed more than a third of his season.
Ortiz was one of the few bright spots of the 2012 Red Sox and was actually having one of the best seasons of his career. In 324 at bats, he hit .318 and added 23 home runs. Had he had enough plate appearances to qualify, his .415 on-base percentage would have been the second-best in all of baseball and his .611 slugging percentage and 1.026 OPS each would have led the majors.
By still being able to perform at such a high level, the team is relying on him to be the key to the Red Sox’ lineup in 2013. Without him, there is very little power in the middle of the order. Even with him, there is a question of whether there would be ample protection around him. It is now likely those players will have to be the main source of the power while Ortiz is out.
Those players will primarily be Mike Napoli and Will Middlebrooks and, to a lesser extent, Dustin Pedroia, Jonny Gomes, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Napoli and Middlebrooks certainly have the power potential to produce in the middle of the order, but neither is a guarantee. Napoli has hit 20 or more home runs in each of the last five seasons, including 30 in his very impressive 2011 season. Middlebrooks hit 15 home runs in 75 games during his injury-shortened rookie season last year and had 23 during a full season in the minors in 2011.
Napoli, though, is dealing with concerns that he can still be fully productive with his degenerative hip issues. The Red Sox are hoping a full-time move to first base, and possibly some DH work, will take some strain off of him compared to catching every day. So far, it seems to be paying off as he is hitting .400 with two home runs this spring. Middlebrooks, meanwhile, must prove that he has acclimated to major league pitching as he has a small sample size at that level and he must show he can stay healthy. Another wrist injury scare this spring has planted that seed in many minds.
Pedroia and Gomes could also provide some mid-order pop, though they are not primarily known for their power. Pedroia hits the ball a lot harder and farther than a typical 5’8” second baseman, but still only has one 20+ home run season. Gomes does have three such years, but is really just a threat against left-handed pitchers. Saltalamacchia had 25 home runs last year, but also struck out 139 times and hit just .222.
It’s tough to envision the Red Sox finding a suitable replacement for Ortiz with any prospects from the minors, either. Some of their best power-hitting prospects, like Bryce Brentz, aren’t quite ready for the majors. Xander Bogaerts may be the exception, but the Red Sox are already wrestling with whether they want to rush him up or give him at least part of another year in the minors.
It is possible they could give last year’s International League MVP Mauro Gomez a chance. He hit .301/.371/.589 in Pawtucket and added 24 home runs. He has yet to show that will translate to the majors, though. In 37 games last season, he hit .275 with two home runs. He hasn’t turned many heads this spring, either, hitting just .200 in 20 at bats and has not had anything leave the park.
It’s hard to believe the Sox would try to find a replacement outside the organization. There aren’t many worthwhile power bats left on the free agent market nor are they any available via trade. Even if there were, General Manager Ben Cherington would be reluctant to part with any valuable young pieces and they won’t be able to get anyone impactful without giving up someone with potential.
So, what’s left is for the team to cross its fingers and hope Ortiz comes back fairly quickly. If all that needs to happen is for Ortiz to recover over this 5-7 day period and then get some practice time before he returns to the field, that would be the best case scenario. He may miss the first part of the regular season, but that would be a small price to pay if he can still get in nearly a full season.
But, if these heal issues really are related to the Achilles strain he suffered last year, that could spell long-term trouble. ESPNBoston.com’s Gordon Edes told WEEI’s Dennis & Callahan that he thinks Ortiz will manage to play in about 120 games which is a quarter of the season. And that was the highest estimate from among the beat writers the hosts asked.
Ortiz’s health could become one of the biggest issues facing the Red Sox during this season. With him, many believe the team’s offense would be adequate enough to keep them competitive and it would be the starting pitching that had the most potential to be the weak spot. A lack of a dangerous middle of the order bat for an extended period has the potential to expose the team in another area, too.
