By: Jeff Boggis, “The Sultan of Stats” of Fantasy Sports Empires
On my first fantasy baseball podcast this season, I opened up with a discussion on who should be drafted first overall in 2013 fantasy baseball league drafts. The fantasy baseball experts have created a top tier between Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, and Miguel Cabrera. Let’s take a closer look at these three players.
Mike Trout (OF – LAA)
On the surface, most novice fantasy baseball league managers will say that Mike Trout should be the consensus #1 overall pick in 2013. They will base this on last season’s stellar performance where Trout hit 30 home runs, a .326 batting average, and stole 49 bases. I have seen some 2013 projections for 30 to 35 home runs and 50 to 70 stolen bases. Although these projections are possible, everything is priced to perfection. When drafting in fantasy baseball, you can’t win your league in the first round of your draft, but you can certainly lose it. My drafting philosophy over the years has been risk adverse in the early draft rounds. Your first round pick is the anchor and foundation of your team. And although Mike Trout had an outstanding rookie season, he’s only done it one time. We have such a small sample size in one season, or do we? If you take a look at last season and his time in the minor leagues, they don’t compare.
|
Year |
AB |
HR |
HR/AB |
SB Att |
SB |
CS |
SB Success Rate |
AVG |
|
2010 |
508 |
10 |
50.8 |
71 |
56 |
15 |
79% |
0.341 |
|
2011 |
476 |
16 |
29.8 |
47 |
37 |
10 |
79% |
0.326 |
|
2012 |
559 |
30 |
18.6 |
54 |
49 |
5 |
91% |
0.326 |
In 2010 in the minors Mike Trout had 508 at bats and hit a whopping total of 10 home runs, or one home run in every 50.8 at bats. This home run rate improved in 2011 to roughly one home run in every 30 at bats. In 2012, he hit one home run for every 18.6 at bats. If Mike Trout has 600 at bats in 2013 and regresses to one home run in every 25 at bats, the projection would be for 24 home runs. If Trout regresses to one home run in 30 at bats which replicate his performance in the minors in 2011, the projection drops to only 20 home runs. I have a realistic home run projection for Mike Trout in 2013 for 20 to 25 home runs.
I also don’t think that Trout can maintain the 91% stolen base success rate that he accomplished in 2012. I have projected 70 stolen base attempts which is close to his 2010 statistics and a stolen base success rate of 80%. The resulting projection would be for 55 stolen bases. I do believe that Trout’s batting average is legit, and I am projecting .325 +/- .005.
In summary, if all goes perfect, Trout’s projections are for 24 HRs, 50-55 SBs, and a .320 to .330 batting average.
He is a top 5 pick, but too much risk for an overall top pick in 2013. Let’s not lose sight he is only 21 years old and will not be a superstar overnight. History also shows us that it is very difficult to maintain these types of career years, two years in a row. In 2010 Carlos Gonzalez finished as the top fantasy baseball player. The following year, his home run total dropped from 34 to 26, his batting average from .336 to .295, and stolen bases from 26 to 20. Fast forward to 2011 when Matt Kemp finished as the top fantasy baseball player. Kemp played injured in 2012 and saw his home run production drop from 39 to 23 and his stolen bases from 40 to 9. And did anyone see this coming from Mike Trout to start with? The average draft position for Trout in 2012 was 234 which placed him in round 20. Trout should experience greater protection in the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim lineup with the addition of Josh Hamilton in the off season, but with the lack of a track record, I have Mike Trout ranked 3rd overall in 2013 fantasy baseball drafts.
Miguel Cabrera (3B – DET)
Cabrera is coming off a Triple Crown season and has a proven track record to warrant the overall top pick in 2013. He is still in the prime of his career at age 30 and has hit 30 or more home runs in eight of the nine past seasons. Unlike Carlos Gonzales and Matt Kemp, Cabrera has remained injury free since his first full season in the majors in 2004. Over this time period, Cabrera has averaged 594 at bats, 34 home runs, 118 runs batted in, and a .322 batting average. Cabrera contributes in four of the five hitting categories, with only averaging four stolen bases per season. The difference between Cabrera versus Trout and Braun is position eligibility. While both Trout and Braun both qualify at a deep outfield position, Cabrera qualifies at 3rd base, which is not shallow or deep this season. Cabrera will keep motivated this season to win a World Series ring versus another triple crown. Cabrera will be drafted anywhere from first to third in 2013 fantasy baseball league drafts, and I have him ranked #2 in my overall rankings.
Ryan Braun (OF – MIL)
Ryan Braun is coming off a great 2012 campaign with 41 home runs, 112 runs batted in, 108 runs scored, a .319 batting average, and 30 stolen bases. At age 29, he is primed for an encore and has the track report to back up his statistics. The major difference between Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera is that Braun contributes in all five hitting categories, where Cabrera does not contribute in stolen bases. Taking a closer look at Braun’s statistics, I exclude 2007 where he was called up from the minors and still produced 34 home runs and 97 RBIs in 451 at bats. From 2008 to 2012, Braun has averaged 605 at bats, 105 runs scored, 34 home runs, 109 runs batted in, 22 stolen bases, and a .312 batting average. These are great numbers to build the foundation for your fantasy baseball team in 2013. Braun has also managed to stay healthy his entire major league career, although he played through some minor groin, Achilles, and right hip issues last season. He overcame adversity in 2012 with the potential for being suspended for 50 games due to a banned substance. With both these mental and physical issues behind him, Braun is poised for a career season and will please fantasy owners who drafted him first overall in 2013 fantasy baseball league drafts.
Players to Target in 2013 Fantasy Baseball League Drafts
We all would love to be able to draft Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, and Ryan Braun on the same team, but we know that this is not going to happen. We also know that there may be 2012’s version of Mike Trout in 2013. Fantasy managers also need to focus on players who will not live up to their average draft position, along with identifying players that are bounce back candidates.
Wil Myers (OF – TB)
Wil Myers is my top sleeper in 2013 and I will target him in the late rounds of all of my fantasy baseball league drafts. Myers is 22 years old and an outfielder for Tampa Bay. I would not be surprised if Myers begins the year in Triple-A Durham as the Rays’ organization are known to delay player arbitration as long as possible. But even if Myers does not make the opening day roster, he will be called up sometime after the June 1st yearly arbitration date and will make a significant contribution. A 20-25 home run and 80 RBI season is possible.
Billy Hamilton (OF – CIN)
Billy Hamilton is my super sleeper of 2013. When Hamilton is in the major leagues for good, he will rewrite the record books for stolen bases. He can single handedly carry your fantasy team in stolen bases, but he may not get the call up from Triple-A Louisville. Hamilton began his career as a shortstop, but has moved to the outfield. Hamilton has a proven track record in the minor leagues of stealing bases with 103 in 2011 and 155 in 2012. Hamilton is a contact hitter with a .312 average last season, but has little power. He reminds me of Juan Pierre, but with a higher stolen base potential.
Eric Hosmer (1B – KC) and Brett Lawrie (3B – TOR)
Just as fantasy players are moved up fantasy rankings and over-hyped, each season there are players that fall out of favor and fall too far in fantasy rankings. I like to think of them as post-hype bounce back candidates. Edwin Encarnacion is a prime example in 2012 drafts. After hitting 17 home runs in 2011, Encarnacion dropped in 2012 drafts. He bounced back in 2012 and ended up with 42 home runs and hit .280. I think the same will happen for both Eric Hosmer and Brett Lawrie. Brett Lawrie started first half of the 2012 season with nine home runs and 11 stolen bases, but injuries in the second half of the season left Lawrie with an overall disappointing 2012 with only 11 home runs and a .273 average. He is a player to target once the elite third basemen are off the board in your fantasy drafts. Eric Hosmer had a breakout season in 2011 with 19 home runs, 78 runs batted in, and hit .293, but like Lawrie, he did not live up to the 4th to 6th round draft status. Hosmer hit is dismal .232 with only 14 home runs and 60 runs batted in. Let’s not forget that Hosmer is only 23 years old and has plenty of room for career growth. I see both Lawrie and Hosmer with projections of 20-25 home runs, 10-15 stolen bases, and a .270-.280 batting average.
Here is a complete rundown of my predictions for the 2013 fantasy baseball season:
Fantasy MVP – Ryan Braun
Fantasy CY Young – Stephen Strasburg
Sleeper – Wil Myers
Deep Sleeper – Billy Hamilton
Bounce back Players – Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Halladay
Won’t Live Up To Average Draft Status – Buster Posey, Yu Darvish, Jason Kipnis
Jeff Boggis “The Sultan of Stats” runs Fantasy Sports Empires. You can reach him on Twitter: @JeffBoggis
